Friday, December 2, 2011

Virtual Stock Portfolio – Investor Link

Over the last 6 months, we have discussed quite a few stock ideas. It would be an interesting idea to introduce a virtual portfolio of Rs 1 million consisting of say 10 stocks with equal weight. I might have vested interest in some of these stocks and with other stocks, it would serve as a tracking list. Besides the learning value, it will give a sense how Mr Market is viewing the stocks and their returns. This is not intended to be an investment advice for anyone and all the usual disclaimer clauses apply.

Another advantage of creating a virtual portfolio is that it can be done after market hours at the closing prices of today. We take closing prices of today, December 01, 2011. We have 10 picks each with an allocation of Rs 1 lakh to make up the Rs 1 million portfolio.

Each of the 10 stocks will have a starting weightage of 10% in the virtual portfolio.

Typical time horizon for this portfolio is 2 years, and risk profile is moderate.

Objective is to generate stable returns as an investor, and will not be chasing momentum by taking undue risks.  On return expectation, it’s fine so long as it can beat the bank FD return and/or outperform the main index (Nifty 50 at 4,937 and Sensex at 16,483 as at close on 01-12-2011).

Ok, so let’s get going…

Our opening list is this.


S.No
Scrip
CMP
01-12-11
(Rs)
Market Cap
(Rs crore)
Quantity
(No.)
Invest.
Amt
(Rs lakh)
EPS
FY-11
Rs
P/E
ttm
1
Bajaj Electricals
181.00
1,799.09
550
1.00
14.66
13.42
2
Balmer Lawrie Co
537.65
872.45
185
0.99
74.35
6.52
3
Corporation Bank
352.00
5,223.15
287
1.01
81.44
3.53
4
Hawkins Cooker
1,500.15
793.25
67
1.00
60.07
17.21
5
Hinduja Globa Sol
321.10
668.94
310
1.00
52.09
6.25
6
IL&FS Inv Mngrs
26.75
547.49
3,740
1.00
3.32
7.96
7
JB Chem Pharma
71.95
608.18
1,390
1.00
13.98
0.88
8
South Indian Bank
21.95
2,486.25
4,560
1.00
2.59
7.43
9
Tata Global Bev
88.25
5,454.28
1,130
1.00
2.92
16.58
10
VST Industries
1,115.20
1,714.21
90
1.00
61.53
14.19

Total



10.00




All prices are closing prices on NSE as at 01-12-2011 (except Hawkins which is only on BSE). We will not be bothering ourselves with brokerage costs & STT for this hypothetical exercise. While churns are not expected to be very frequent, if there is any incidence of capital gains incurred, we will provide for that in return computation. Dividends will be accounted unless they are small to be rounded off.

Shall we do a small intro of each of the stocks, hmm.. it will become a very long post. Anyway, most of the stocks in this Virtual Portfolio have been discussed on this blog. Few others like Balmer Lawrie, Hawkins, JB Chemicals, Tata Global Beverages and VST Industries are fairly well known & established names in their respective areas. We have covered market cap varying from Rs 500 crore to Rs 5,000 crore in this portfolio. We have diverse sectors in this virtual portfolio covering the following :
(1)  Electrical appliances & projects
(2)  Packaging & Logistics
(3)  PSU Banks
(4)  Private Banks
(5)  Domestic appliances
(6)  IT (BPO space)
(7)  Financial Services (PE space)
(8)  Pharmaceuticals
(9)  Beverages (Tea)
(10)FMCG (Cigarettes)

We’ll be re-visiting how this set of stocks is performing, can’t assure any frequency though, and will shuffle the stocks as and when required. After all, you can take all such liberty with a hypothetical portfolio.
.

7 comments:

  1. Hi Shikhar

    i liked your idea of virtual portfolio.

    IL&FS i guess you've considered standalone EPS 1.82. Consolidated EPS is 3.4 for 2011.

    ReplyDelete
  2. Thanks Sagar for pointing out, have corrected consolidated earning numbers for couple of them.

    ReplyDelete
  3. Hi Shikhar

    Balmer & Lawrie- AR 2011 has consolidated with subsidiary EPS of 74.18 and consolidated with subsidiary & joint venture EPS is 78.77. Any reason for not considering the JV EPS in your stock portfolio ? if we consider the book value from consol + JV balancesheet At current price of 479.20 stock is available at less than book value.

    ReplyDelete
  4. Hi Sagar,

    Balmer Lawrie & Co. is truly undervalued but that does not mean the gap will narrow or go away next week. Cash per share of Rs 149 is around 30% of m-cap.

    We need to watch out for PSU buy-back mechanism if govt proceeds with it including in case of balmer.

    ReplyDelete
  5. Hi Shikhar

    Very good point. Govt has ~ 60% holding in balmer lawrie investment, general public has ~ 18% and rest is by others..if company buyback 10 % from govt, what would be the new shareholding structure ?

    If all cash per share is used for buyback , isn't stock still a bargain based on earning power per share ?

    Also is there any reason for not including JV EPS in stock portfolio ? am i missing anything on this ?

    ReplyDelete
  6. Sagar, JVs like Transafe are the raw nerve of Balmer, and I don't want to care if they're earnings accretive (if it's net negative then we have to certainly include).

    AVI is ok. But Transafe had a fraud last year and I doubt adequacy of internal controls there.

    I'm due for a post on BL, as a stock it can be really interesting. Let's see.

    ReplyDelete
  7. Thank you sir ! very well said on JV..i was missing this angle..you helped me to fill the missing link..i'm eager for blog on balmer.
    if possible , pls write on moat of Balmer.

    ReplyDelete